Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: AS 720 at 10:10 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–30%.

Safest bet that day AS 720 BUR 10:10 → SEA 12:52 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AS 1338 BUR 13:55 → SEA 16:29 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 720 Alaska Flight history →	BUR 10:10	SEA 12:52	22%	5%	1.0%	88%
AS 1388 Alaska Flight history →	BUR 10:53	SEA 13:27	23%	5%	1.0%	93%worse than usual
AS 537 Alaska Flight history →	BUR 14:52	SEA 17:34	25%	6%	1.2%	78%
AS 347 Alaska Flight history →	BUR 19:58	SEA 22:39	27%	6%	1.0%	78%
AS 491 Alaska Flight history →	BUR 06:58	SEA 09:32	27%	5%	1.3%	87%worse than usual
AS 444 Alaska Flight history →	BUR 07:03	SEA 09:44	29%	5%	1.3%	86%worse than usual
AS 703 Alaska Flight history →	BUR 18:39	SEA 21:20	30%	6%	1.0%	78%
AS 580 Alaska Flight history →	BUR 13:21	SEA 16:03	30%	5%	1.0%	90%worse than usual
AS 1338 Alaska	BUR 13:55	SEA 16:29	33%	6%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON