Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 834 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 834 BUR 07:20 → SJC 08:35 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 840 BUR 17:55 → SJC 19:05 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 834 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 07:20	SJC 08:35	3%	1%	0.6%	92%
WN 915 Southwest	BUR 07:30	SJC 08:52	3%	1%	1.0%	no record
WN 920 Southwest	BUR 10:25	SJC 11:47	6%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 835 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 09:55	SJC 11:05	7%	2%	1.0%	86%
WN 3237 Southwest	BUR 12:05	SJC 13:27	9%	3%	0.9%	no record
WN 813 Southwest	BUR 14:56	SJC 16:18	12%	3%	0.9%	no record
WN 836 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 12:20	SJC 13:30	13%	3%	0.9%	67%
WN 3295 Southwest	BUR 17:40	SJC 19:02	14%	5%	0.8%	no record
WN 4883 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 15:15	SJC 16:30	14%	3%	0.9%	78%
WN 4884 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 20:15	SJC 21:30	15%	6%	0.8%	67%
WN 840 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 17:55	SJC 19:05	16%	5%	0.8%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON