Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 5–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 2582 BUR 07:00 → SLC 10:01 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 3693 BUR 16:54 → SLC 19:50 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2582 Delta Flight history →	BUR 07:00	SLC 10:01	5%	2%	0.4%	93%
DL 3681 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BUR 09:45	SLC 12:43	7%	4%	0.7%	91%
DL 1290 Delta	BUR 09:52	SLC 12:44	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 3933 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BUR 12:35	SLC 15:33	9%	5%	0.7%	85%
DL 3693 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BUR 16:54	SLC 19:50	14%	5%	0.7%	95%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON