Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 928 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 928 BUR 07:25 → SMF 08:53 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 853 BUR 18:35 → SMF 19:55 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 928 Southwest	BUR 07:25	SMF 08:53	4%	1%	0.9%	no record
WN 845 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 07:30	SMF 08:55	5%	1%	0.9%	98%
WN 930 Southwest	BUR 09:00	SMF 10:28	6%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 2638 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 09:05	SMF 10:30	6%	2%	0.9%	96%
WN 931 Southwest	BUR 11:25	SMF 12:53	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 932 Southwest	BUR 12:40	SMF 14:08	14%	4%	0.8%	no record
WN 933 Southwest	BUR 14:25	SMF 15:53	16%	5%	0.8%	no record
WN 3474 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 16:10	SMF 17:35	16%	6%	0.8%	76%
WN 854 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 19:45	SMF 21:05	16%	6%	0.8%	82%
WN 4966 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 12:55	SMF 14:15	18%	4%	0.8%	82%
WN 851 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 14:00	SMF 15:20	18%	4%	0.8%	81%
WN 853 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 18:35	SMF 19:55	20%	6%	0.8%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON