Today looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 13–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AS 3400 BUR 09:38 → STS 11:25 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 424 BUR 13:50 → STS 15:20 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


AS 3400 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BUR 09:38	STS 11:25	13%	5%	0.7%	90%
WN 3540 Southwest	BUR 13:00	STS 14:31	18%	4%	0.4%	no record
AS 3093 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BUR 15:19	STS 16:55	20%	6%	0.7%	96%worse than usual
OO 3114 SkyWest	BUR 14:17	STS 15:51	21%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 424 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 13:50	STS 15:20	22%	4%	0.4%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON