tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via Love Field, leaving 09:35, is the safest bet: 56% chance of reaching Albuquerque on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4528 Southwest Flight history → BWI 15:30 ABQ 17:30 30% 5% 0.5% 46%
WN 4823 Southwest BWI 13:50 ABQ 15:55 30% 4% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albuquerque on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albuquerque is 2 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BWI 08:20 → MCI 10:05WN 4215 3h 50m Kansas City MCI 13:55 → ABQ 15:04WN 5040 8h 44m 100% 92%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 06:10 → MDW 07:10WN 995 2h 30m Chicago MDW 09:40 → ABQ 11:37WN 385 7h 27m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → BWI 06:00 → IAH 08:16UA 1898 1h 44m Houston IAH 10:00 → ABQ 11:25UA 3982 · flown by Mesa 7h 25m 98% 87%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 07:10 → DAL 09:35WN 15 1h 10m Dallas DAL 10:45 → ABQ 11:30WN 1253 6h 20m 100% 85%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 06:05 → DEN 07:50WN 4436 3h 30m Denver DEN 11:20 → ABQ 12:40WN 170 8h 35m 100% 84%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 07:25 → DEN 09:15WN 935 2h 39m Denver DEN 11:54 → ABQ 13:19WN 1527 7h 54m 100% 84%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 07:00 → PHX 08:50WN 1049 1h 25m Phoenix PHX 10:15 → ABQ 12:30WN 106 7h 30m 97% 84%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 09:35 → MDW 10:35WN 4217 1h 30m Chicago MDW 12:05 → ABQ 14:00WN 2719 6h 25m 98% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → BWI 08:05 → AUS 10:30WN 865 54m Austin AUS 11:24 → ABQ 12:24WN 777 6h 19m 71% 60%
AmericanDetails → BWI 07:30 → DFW 09:55AA 1403 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:46 → ABQ 11:54AA 1912 6h 24m 70% 53%
AmericanDetails → BWI 19:12 → DFW 21:48AA 1213 1h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:56 → ABQ 23:49AA 2564 6h 37m 67% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON