Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 938 at 06:53 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 938 BWI 06:53 → ALB 08:19 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 858 BWI 22:30 → ALB 23:50 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 938 Southwest	BWI 06:53	ALB 08:19	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 857 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 07:05	ALB 08:25	3%	2%	0.7%	90%
WN 155 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 10:55	ALB 12:15	8%	3%	0.6%	88%
WN 939 Southwest	BWI 10:32	ALB 11:57	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4880 Southwest	BWI 12:55	ALB 14:20	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 164 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 13:25	ALB 14:45	14%	4%	0.6%	75%
WN 4355 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 17:20	ALB 18:40	15%	5%	0.6%	61%
WN 858 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 22:30	ALB 23:50	18%	6%	0.6%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON