Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 21 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 25%, against 14% on a calm day. Safest: DL 2950 at 05:40, 11%.

Safest bet that day DL 2950 BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 1079 BWI 19:21 → ATL 21:39 · 52% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Weather 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2950 Delta Flight history →	BWI 05:40	ATL 07:31	11%	4%	0.9%	94%
DL 1592 Delta Flight history →	BWI 10:33	ATL 12:24	13%	4%	0.8%	90%
WN 4689 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 06:20	ATL 08:15	14%	2%	0.5%	97%worse than usual
DL 801 Delta Flight history →	BWI 11:52	ATL 13:41	14%	4%	0.7%	88%
WN 943 Southwest	BWI 09:37	ATL 11:41	18%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 2711 Delta Flight history →	BWI 14:08	ATL 16:05	18%	4%	0.7%	85%
WN 4475 Southwest	BWI 07:02	ATL 09:08	18%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 2579 Delta Flight history →	BWI 07:00	ATL 08:52	20%	4%	0.8%	91%worse than usual
WN 3931 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 08:20	ATL 10:20	21%	3%	0.5%	92%worse than usual
DL 2562 Delta Flight history →	BWI 08:17	ATL 10:10	21%	4%	0.8%	91%worse than usual
DL 2799 Delta Flight history →	BWI 17:00	ATL 19:08	23%	5%	0.7%	78%
DL 1267 Delta Flight history →	BWI 18:20	ATL 20:34	24%	6%	0.7%	74%
WN 3081 Southwest	BWI 13:56	ATL 16:03	27%	5%	0.6%	no record
F9 2633 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 06:35	ATL 09:00	30%	10%	1.9%	77%
WN 862 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 11:55	ATL 13:45	30%	3%	0.6%	41%
F9 4427 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 10:11	ATL 12:24	31%	9%	0.9%	76%
WN 946 Southwest	BWI 18:27	ATL 20:31	33%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 4626 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 20:20	ATL 22:15	33%	8%	0.6%	57%
F9 2509 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 21:37	ATL 23:49	38%	16%	1.2%	55%
WN 4433 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 18:20	ATL 20:15	39%	6%	0.6%	64%
F9 1079 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 19:21	ATL 21:39	52%	14%	1.0%	68%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON