Today: WN 427 at 10:40 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–26%.

Safest bet today WN 427 BWI 10:40 → BDL 12:00 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest WN 19 BWI 19:27 → BDL 20:47 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 427 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 10:40	BDL 12:00	6%	1%	0.2%	86%
WN 2662 Southwest	BWI 10:35	BDL 11:55	7%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 1143 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 12:50	BDL 14:10	11%	2%	0.2%	82%
WN 2853 Southwest	BWI 16:02	BDL 17:22	14%	3%	0.2%	no record
WN 1879 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 22:55	BDL 00:20	19%	5%	0.6%	70%
WN 954 Southwest	BWI 22:27	BDL 23:47	22%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 428 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 17:10	BDL 18:30	23%	4%	0.4%	68%
WN 19 Southwest	BWI 19:27	BDL 20:47	26%	4%	0.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON