Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 874 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 874 BWI 06:25 → BNA 07:20 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 879 BWI 18:00 → BNA 19:00 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 874 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 06:25	BNA 07:20	4%	1%	0.2%	90%
WN 4883 Southwest	BWI 07:00	BNA 07:59	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4738 Southwest	BWI 09:10	BNA 10:10	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 487 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 09:45	BNA 10:35	13%	3%	0.6%	84%
WN 958 Southwest	BWI 14:50	BNA 15:51	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 1959 American	BWI 07:47	BNA 08:47	16%	6%	2.7%	no record
WN 687 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 19:55	BNA 20:50	17%	5%	0.6%	50%
WN 3245 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 13:05	BNA 14:00	18%	3%	0.6%	67%
WN 879 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 18:00	BNA 19:00	18%	5%	0.6%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON