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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via Midway, leaving 06:10, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Burbank on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BWI 06:10 → MDW 07:10WN 995 2h 55m Chicago MDW 10:05 → BUR 12:25WN 2741 9h 15m 99% 86%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 07:00 → PHX 08:50WN 1049 3h 55m Phoenix PHX 12:45 → BUR 14:05WN 1493 10h 05m 100% 84%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 07:25 → DEN 09:15WN 935 2h 30m Denver DEN 11:45 → BUR 13:20WN 579 8h 55m 100% 84%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 07:10 → DAL 09:33WN 15 2h 22m Dallas DAL 11:55 → BUR 13:05WN 4076 8h 55m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → BWI 07:15 → SLC 09:50DL 1176 55m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → BUR 11:54DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 7h 39m 88% 82%
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 3h 48m Atlanta ATL 11:19 → BUR 12:55DL 483 10h 15m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → BWI 08:04 → SFO 11:05UA 2192 2h 45m San Francisco SFO 13:50 → BUR 15:17UA 626 10h 13m 100% 79%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 12:50 → SJC 15:25WN 186 1h 40m San Jose SJC 17:05 → BUR 18:15WN 3663 8h 25m 97% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON