Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 898 at 08:10 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 898 BWI 08:10 → CHS 09:55 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 3358 BWI 20:01 → CHS 21:53 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 898 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 08:10	CHS 09:55	11%	2%	0.7%	90%
WN 972 Southwest	BWI 08:15	CHS 10:07	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 899 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 11:35	CHS 13:15	19%	4%	1.2%	71%
WN 1779 Southwest	BWI 12:21	CHS 14:13	23%	5%	1.2%	no record
WN 974 Southwest	BWI 16:20	CHS 18:11	28%	5%	1.2%	no record
WN 900 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 17:10	CHS 18:55	30%	5%	1.2%	62%
WN 184 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 20:15	CHS 22:00	30%	6%	1.2%	43%
WN 3358 Southwest	BWI 20:01	CHS 21:53	33%	6%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON