Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 15 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 15 BWI 07:10 → DAL 09:35 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 4365 BWI 18:20 → DAL 20:30 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 38% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 15 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 07:10	DAL 09:35	8%	2%	0.6%	93%
WN 698 Southwest	BWI 08:45	DAL 11:11	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4403 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 06:50	DAL 08:55	10%	2%	0.7%	83%
WN 930 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 08:15	DAL 10:25	10%	2%	0.6%	85%
WN 931 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 09:35	DAL 11:45	13%	3%	0.6%	88%
WN 1550 Southwest	BWI 13:05	DAL 15:35	20%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 932 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 14:15	DAL 16:15	22%	4%	0.6%	62%
WN 693 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 20:00	DAL 22:10	22%	5%	0.6%	43%
WN 989 Southwest	BWI 15:40	DAL 18:10	22%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 4365 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 18:20	DAL 20:30	24%	6%	0.6%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON