Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2747 at 12:00 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 2747 BWI 12:00 → DFW 14:27 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 1626 BWI 19:17 → DFW 21:42 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2747 American Flight history →	BWI 12:00	DFW 14:27	16%	6%	0.7%	93%
AA 1403 American Flight history →	BWI 07:30	DFW 09:55	18%	4%	0.7%	85%
AA 1629 American Flight history →	BWI 15:46	DFW 18:12	27%	7%	0.7%	57%
F9 3787 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 14:25	DFW 16:58	28%	13%	0.8%	69%
AA 1626 American Flight history →	BWI 19:17	DFW 21:42	31%	8%	0.7%	52%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BWI 11:52 → ATL 13:41DL 801	49m Atlanta	ATL 14:30 → DFW 15:45DL 921	4h 53m	84%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON