Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4627 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 4627 BWI 06:15 → FLL 08:55 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest F9 4411 BWI 13:05 → FLL 15:47 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4627 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 06:15	FLL 08:55	5%	2%	0.6%	95%
WN 408 Southwest	BWI 06:19	FLL 08:59	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4028 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 07:25	FLL 09:55	10%	3%	0.6%	100%
WN 2097 Southwest	BWI 08:19	FLL 11:06	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
B6 1795 JetBlue Flight history →	BWI 06:09	FLL 08:50	11%	4%	0.7%	86%
WN 945 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 08:25	FLL 11:05	11%	2%	0.6%	82%
WN 4785 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 09:50	FLL 12:20	15%	3%	0.6%	85%
WN 4735 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 18:25	FLL 21:15	16%	5%	0.6%	53%
WN 947 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 17:00	FLL 19:45	17%	5%	0.6%	50%
WN 3072 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 20:15	FLL 22:55	19%	5%	0.6%	50%
B6 2995 JetBlue Flight history →	BWI 08:00	FLL 10:41	20%	5%	0.7%	80%
B6 2595 JetBlue Flight history →	BWI 16:00	FLL 18:41	23%	10%	0.7%	57%
F9 4411 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 13:05	FLL 15:47	28%	10%	1.2%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON