Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:27 pm at Baltimore); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, WN 4373 at 22:35, with a 39% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 4373 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 22:35	GRR 00:20	39%	4%	0.1%	56%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Grand Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	BWI 17:32 → ORD 18:55UA 590	2h 45m Chicago	ORD 21:40 → GRR 23:57UA 5303 · flown by SkyWest	6h 25m	94%	72%
American Details →	BWI 18:32 → ORD 19:42AA 3762 · flown by Envoy	2h 50m Chicago	ORD 22:32 → GRR 00:36 +1AA 1096	6h 04m	100%	65%
Delta Details →	BWI 17:00 → ATL 19:08DL 2799	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → GRR 23:54DL 2865	6h 54m	96%	64%
United Details →	BWI 18:38 → ORD 20:02UA 791	1h 45m Chicago	ORD 21:47 → GRR 23:48UA 1819	5h 10m	85%	62%
Delta Details →	BWI 17:27 → DTW 19:09DL 2480	51m Detroit	DTW 20:00 → GRR 21:00DL 4081 · flown by SkyWest	3h 33m	76%	52%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	BWI 17:00 → ATL 19:08DL 2799	46m Atlanta	ATL 19:54 → GRR 21:51DL 2210	4h 51m	66%	42%
American Details →	BWI 15:46 → DFW 18:12AA 1629	55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:07 → GRR 22:36AA 571	6h 50m	42%	19%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON