Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1898 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–46%.

Safest bet that day UA 1898 BWI 06:00 → IAH 08:16 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 3067 BWI 16:44 → IAH 19:07 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1898 United Flight history →	BWI 06:00	IAH 08:16	12%	2%	0.6%	93%
UA 2194 United Flight history →	BWI 12:58	IAH 15:42	22%	5%	0.7%	90%worse than usual
UA 1911 United	BWI 14:57	IAH 17:25	22%	5%	0.8%	no record
UA 743 United Flight history →	BWI 12:55	IAH 15:11	25%	5%	0.8%	86%worse than usual
UA 2095 United Flight history →	BWI 15:03	IAH 17:19	27%	5%	0.7%	65%
F9 3067 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 16:44	IAH 19:07	46%	12%	1.0%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON