Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 156 at 08:02 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 156 BWI 08:02 → IND 09:57 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 962 BWI 18:00 → IND 19:50 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 156 Southwest	BWI 08:02	IND 09:57	8%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 960 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 10:45	IND 12:30	11%	2%	0.6%	86%
WN 4216 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 22:25	IND 00:20	15%	4%	0.6%	66%
WN 351 Southwest	BWI 13:35	IND 15:30	20%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4739 Southwest	BWI 18:20	IND 20:16	22%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 961 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 15:20	IND 17:05	23%	4%	0.6%	59%
WN 962 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 18:00	IND 19:50	23%	5%	0.6%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON