Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 35%, against 22% on a calm day. Safest: WN 349 at 12:15, 31%.

Safest bet today WN 349 BWI 12:15 → JAX 14:29 · 31% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4438 BWI 20:50 → JAX 23:00 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Weather 35% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 349 Southwest	BWI 12:15	JAX 14:29	31%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 971 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 18:00	JAX 20:10	33%	6%	1.1%	67%
WN 1036 Southwest	BWI 15:45	JAX 17:59	35%	5%	0.8%	no record
WN 1037 Southwest	BWI 20:01	JAX 22:15	37%	6%	1.0%	no record
WN 4438 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 20:50	JAX 23:00	38%	6%	1.0%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON