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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:08, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601 2h 35m Detroit DTW 10:14 → JFK 11:58DL 2751 5h 50m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:21 → BOS 08:00DL 5813 · flown by Republic 1h 05m Boston BOS 09:05 → JFK 10:24DL 5720 · flown by Republic 4h 03m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 3h 34m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → JFK 13:20DL 2380 7h 40m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → BWI 05:02 → CLT 06:26AA 1708 3h 01m Charlotte CLT 09:27 → JFK 11:29AA 374 6h 27m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → BWI 11:52 → ATL 13:41DL 801 3h 14m Atlanta ATL 16:55 → JFK 19:48DL 2378 7h 56m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → BWI 10:33 → ATL 12:24DL 1592 1h 31m Atlanta ATL 13:55 → JFK 16:29DL 1575 5h 56m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → BWI 09:00 → BOS 10:38DL 5703 · flown by Republic 2h 57m Boston BOS 13:35 → JFK 15:10DL 5808 · flown by Republic 6h 10m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → BWI 06:15 → CLT 07:53AA 2670 3h 52m Charlotte CLT 11:45 → JFK 13:47AA 2812 7h 32m 99% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → BWI 07:00 → ATL 08:52DL 2579 52m Atlanta ATL 09:44 → JFK 12:00DL 1034 5h 00m 74% 64%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON