Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1039 at 06:03 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 1039 BWI 06:03 → LAS 08:01 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1102 BWI 15:50 → LAS 17:50 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1039 Southwest	BWI 06:03	LAS 08:01	5%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 860 Southwest	BWI 08:06	LAS 10:24	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 977 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 21:25	LAS 23:35	15%	5%	0.6%	50%
WN 976 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 19:30	LAS 21:40	16%	6%	0.6%	52%
WN 1044 Southwest	BWI 14:56	LAS 16:53	19%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1102 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 15:50	LAS 17:50	22%	5%	0.5%	54%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	BWI 06:15 → STL 07:30WN 1109	1h 45m St Louis	STL 09:15 → LAS 10:40WN 2327	7h 25m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872	1h 19m Minneapolis	MSP 09:13 → LAS 10:31DL 2262	7h 11m	97%	91%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601	1h 20m Detroit	DTW 08:59 → LAS 10:12DL 334	7h 04m	97%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON