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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Boston, leaving 06:21, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:21 → BOS 08:00DL 5813 · flown by Republic 1h 00m Boston BOS 09:00 → LGA 10:22DL 5732 · flown by Republic 4h 01m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872 2h 11m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → LGA 13:45DL 2764 7h 25m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601 2h 26m Detroit DTW 10:05 → LGA 11:50DL 2589 5h 42m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 10:30 → LGA 12:42DL 371 7h 02m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → BWI 06:15 → ORD 07:30UA 709 1h 30m Chicago ORD 09:00 → LGA 12:23UA 709 6h 08m 100% 80%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 06:10 → MDW 07:10WN 995 1h 10m Chicago MDW 08:20 → LGA 11:25WN 2906 5h 15m 95% 79%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 06:25 → BNA 07:20WN 874 2h 25m Nashville BNA 09:45 → LGA 13:05WN 1966 6h 40m 99% 79%
AmericanDetails → BWI 05:44 → ORD 07:12AA 4659 · flown by Republic 48m Chicago ORD 08:00 → LGA 11:19AA 2079 5h 35m 95% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BWI 17:32 → ORD 18:55UA 590 50m Chicago ORD 19:45 → LGA 23:15UA 1655 5h 43m 74% 49%
AmericanDetails → BWI 15:46 → DFW 18:12AA 1629 1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:13 → LGA 23:45AA 2708 7h 59m 72% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON