Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 11–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 4215 BWI 08:20 → MCI 10:05 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest WN 3038 BWI 12:40 → MCI 14:15 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4215 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 08:20	MCI 10:05	11%	2%	0.6%	98%
WN 983 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 21:55	MCI 23:45	16%	4%	0.6%	55%
WN 3038 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 12:40	MCI 14:15	16%	3%	0.6%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON