Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 16 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1053 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 1053 BWI 06:15 → MCO 08:43 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3663 BWI 15:21 → MCO 17:53 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1053 Southwest	BWI 06:15	MCO 08:43	5%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 984 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 06:35	MCO 08:55	6%	2%	0.8%	88%
WN 3373 Southwest	BWI 08:16	MCO 10:45	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 986 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 08:05	MCO 10:20	10%	2%	0.7%	79%
WN 1057 Southwest	BWI 09:04	MCO 11:32	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 3658 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 09:30	MCO 11:50	12%	3%	0.7%	84%
WN 1171 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 10:30	MCO 12:50	12%	4%	0.7%	79%
WN 988 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 11:35	MCO 13:55	14%	5%	0.7%	61%
F9 3273 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 09:29	MCO 12:04	19%	7%	1.9%	81%
WN 4374 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 12:30	MCO 14:50	20%	8%	0.8%	62%
WN 3416 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 19:45	MCO 22:15	23%	9%	1.2%	66%
WN 176 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 16:30	MCO 19:00	26%	13%	1.2%	42%
WN 172 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 17:45	MCO 20:20	27%	12%	1.2%	47%
WN 3777 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 18:40	MCO 21:10	27%	11%	1.3%	55%
F9 4003 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 21:38	MCO 00:09	30%	16%	5.2%	59%
F9 3663 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 15:21	MCO 17:53	36%	17%	4.3%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON