Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1067 at 06:12 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 1067 BWI 06:12 → MDW 07:25 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1643 BWI 18:55 → MDW 20:12 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1067 Southwest	BWI 06:12	MDW 07:25	5%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 995 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 06:10	MDW 07:10	5%	1%	0.4%	89%
WN 1070 Southwest	BWI 07:43	MDW 08:56	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 1071 Southwest	BWI 09:01	MDW 10:14	10%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 4217 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 09:35	MDW 10:35	12%	2%	0.4%	68%
WN 1072 Southwest	BWI 14:35	MDW 15:51	17%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 435 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 12:30	MDW 13:30	19%	3%	0.6%	69%
WN 997 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 16:05	MDW 17:10	21%	3%	0.6%	66%
WN 999 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 20:55	MDW 22:00	25%	4%	0.6%	28%
WN 1073 Southwest	BWI 20:56	MDW 22:12	25%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 1643 Southwest	BWI 18:55	MDW 20:12	27%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON