Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 7–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1731 BWI 10:35 → MHT 12:10 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest WN 1668 BWI 22:35 → MHT 00:10 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1731 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 10:35	MHT 12:10	7%	2%	0.6%	80%
WN 2936 Southwest	BWI 06:50	MHT 08:26	8%	3%	0.3%	no record
WN 1004 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 14:55	MHT 16:25	11%	3%	0.6%	86%
WN 4736 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 16:50	MHT 18:25	14%	4%	0.6%	78%
WN 672 Southwest	BWI 13:35	MHT 15:09	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1080 Southwest	BWI 16:43	MHT 18:17	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 1668 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 22:35	MHT 00:10	15%	3%	0.6%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON