Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1183 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 1183 BWI 06:00 → MIA 08:46 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 1619 BWI 18:39 → MIA 21:25 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1183 American Flight history →	BWI 06:00	MIA 08:46	8%	4%	1.2%	87%
WN 3278 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 08:20	MIA 11:00	13%	3%	0.7%	80%
WN 4480 Southwest	BWI 08:27	MIA 11:03	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 4737 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 11:45	MIA 14:20	19%	4%	0.6%	80%
WN 235 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 20:30	MIA 23:20	20%	5%	0.7%	50%
F9 1665 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 10:53	MIA 13:49	20%	9%	1.2%	67%
AA 1619 American Flight history →	BWI 18:39	MIA 21:25	26%	6%	1.0%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON