Today looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 16–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today WN 1086 BWI 09:40 → MKE 10:46 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4339 BWI 22:35 → MKE 23:43 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1086 Southwest	BWI 09:40	MKE 10:46	16%	3%	0.3%	no record
WN 2872 Southwest	BWI 16:15	MKE 17:22	22%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 1015 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 22:50	MKE 23:55	22%	6%	0.6%	56%
WN 1014 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 18:25	MKE 19:30	22%	6%	0.6%	50%
WN 4339 Southwest	BWI 22:35	MKE 23:43	25%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON