Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2357 at 11:35 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 2357 BWI 11:35 → MSP 13:11 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest WN 1016 BWI 13:40 → MSP 15:20 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2357 Delta Flight history →	BWI 11:35	MSP 13:11	9%	3%	0.6%	78%
DL 2872 Delta Flight history →	BWI 06:20	MSP 07:54	10%	4%	0.4%	91%
WN 2545 Southwest	BWI 10:25	MSP 12:11	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 2565 Delta Flight history →	BWI 19:10	MSP 21:00	13%	5%	0.6%	71%
WN 863 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 22:05	MSP 23:55	25%	6%	0.6%	24%
WN 1016 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 13:40	MSP 15:20	26%	4%	0.6%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON