Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 878 at 08:04 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 878 BWI 08:04 → MYR 09:45 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4220 BWI 20:10 → MYR 21:45 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 878 Southwest	BWI 08:04	MYR 09:45	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2997 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 08:20	MYR 09:55	10%	2%	0.6%	95%
WN 1101 Southwest	BWI 13:51	MYR 15:33	19%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 4367 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 17:05	MYR 18:35	20%	6%	0.8%	64%
WN 330 Southwest	BWI 20:01	MYR 21:42	20%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 4220 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 20:10	MYR 21:45	22%	7%	0.7%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON