tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via Denver, leaving 06:05, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Oakland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BWI 06:05 → DEN 07:50WN 4436 3h 05m Denver DEN 10:55 → OAK 12:25WN 1577 9h 20m 100% 85%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 06:10 → MDW 07:10WN 995 2h 55m Chicago MDW 10:05 → OAK 12:38WN 4280 9h 28m 98% 85%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 07:10 → LAX 09:35WN 4322 2h 20m Los Angeles LAX 11:55 → OAK 13:15WN 4893 9h 05m 99% 83%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 07:00 → PHX 08:50WN 1049 2h 17m Phoenix PHX 11:07 → OAK 13:10WN 678 9h 10m 100% 82%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 07:25 → DEN 09:15WN 935 1h 51m Denver DEN 11:06 → OAK 12:42WN 986 8h 17m 96% 80%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 09:40 → DEN 11:25WN 275 2h 16m Denver DEN 13:41 → OAK 15:18WN 1698 8h 38m 100% 77%
DeltaDetails → BWI 07:15 → SLC 09:50DL 1176 55m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → OAK 11:46DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest 7h 31m 82% 76%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 15:00 → SAN 17:20WN 1088 3h 40m San Diego SAN 21:00 → OAK 22:35WN 4841 10h 35m 100% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → BWI 07:00 → PHX 08:50WN 1049 50m Phoenix PHX 09:40 → OAK 11:35WN 2680 7h 35m 61% 52%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 15:00 → SAN 17:20WN 1088 1h 00m San Diego SAN 18:20 → OAK 19:55WN 3017 7h 55m 67% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON