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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via Phoenix, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Ontario on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 200 Southwest Flight history → BWI 20:10 ONT 22:25 26% 8% 0.5% 48%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BWI 07:15 → SLC 09:50DL 1176 1h 31m Salt Lake City SLC 11:21 → ONT 12:10DL 3172 7h 55m 96% 86%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 06:05 → DEN 07:50WN 4436 3h 05m Denver DEN 10:55 → ONT 12:10WN 4080 9h 05m 100% 85%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 07:00 → PHX 08:50WN 1049 1h 15m Phoenix PHX 10:05 → ONT 11:20WN 431 7h 20m 95% 84%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 09:45 → BNA 10:35WN 487 3h 20m Nashville BNA 13:55 → ONT 16:00WN 855 9h 15m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 1h 50m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 7h 58m 96% 80%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 09:35 → MDW 10:35WN 4217 1h 20m Chicago MDW 11:55 → ONT 14:07WN 3508 7h 32m 94% 79%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 08:05 → AUS 10:30WN 865 1h 15m Austin AUS 11:45 → ONT 12:46WN 553 7h 41m 94% 79%
UnitedDetails → BWI 08:30 → DEN 10:25UA 2412 1h 00m Denver DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430 7h 17m 89% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BWI 07:30 → DFW 09:55AA 1403 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:46 → ONT 12:07AA 2956 7h 37m 68% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON