Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 4659 at 05:44 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 4659 BWI 05:44 → ORD 07:12 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest F9 4307 BWI 10:24 → ORD 11:42 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4659 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BWI 05:44	ORD 07:12	5%	2%	0.7%	91%
YX 4783 Republic	BWI 07:19	ORD 08:37	7%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 709 United Flight history →	BWI 06:15	ORD 07:30	7%	3%	0.6%	81%
AA 3446 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BWI 10:31	ORD 11:46	9%	3%	0.7%	92%
AA 4717 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BWI 20:13	ORD 21:44	9%	4%	0.7%	68%
UA 1367 United	BWI 06:25	ORD 07:32	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 704 United Flight history →	BWI 10:32	ORD 11:48	10%	4%	0.6%	90%
MQ 3523 Envoy	BWI 11:39	ORD 12:53	12%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 2749 United Flight history →	BWI 08:16	ORD 09:30	13%	4%	0.6%	86%
UA 249 United	BWI 11:54	ORD 13:08	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 590 United Flight history →	BWI 17:32	ORD 18:55	20%	5%	0.6%	57%
UA 791 United Flight history →	BWI 18:38	ORD 20:02	20%	5%	0.6%	53%
F9 4307 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 10:24	ORD 11:42	21%	8%	0.8%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON