Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via O'Hare, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops that day


AS 1369 Alaska Flight history →	BWI 16:19	PDX 18:56	11%	3%	0.6%	84%
WN 1048 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 13:50	PDX 16:20	25%	3%	0.5%	50%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872	3h 05m Minneapolis	MSP 10:59 → PDX 12:34DL 1661	9h 14m	99%	93%
United Details →	BWI 06:15 → ORD 07:30UA 709	1h 30m Chicago	ORD 09:00 → PDX 11:38UA 1994	8h 23m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	BWI 11:35 → MSP 13:11DL 2357	2h 47m Minneapolis	MSP 15:58 → PDX 17:35DL 2008	9h 00m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206	10h 18m	99%	90%
United Details →	BWI 08:30 → DEN 10:25UA 2412	3h 02m Denver	DEN 13:27 → PDX 15:13UA 2455	9h 43m	99%	89%
United Details →	BWI 10:32 → ORD 11:48UA 704	1h 42m Chicago	ORD 13:30 → PDX 15:57UA 2817	8h 25m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	BWI 11:52 → ATL 13:41DL 801	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 16:52 → PDX 18:56DL 503	10h 04m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601	1h 15m Detroit	DTW 08:54 → PDX 10:36DL 2171	7h 28m	95%	86%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BWI 12:00 → DFW 14:27AA 2747	2h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:37 → PDX 18:41AA 685	9h 41m	74%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON