Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1105 at 06:19 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 1105 BWI 06:19 → PHX 08:27 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1050 BWI 16:25 → PHX 18:15 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1105 Southwest	BWI 06:19	PHX 08:27	9%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1049 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 07:00	PHX 08:50	11%	2%	0.6%	88%
WN 1106 Southwest	BWI 09:27	PHX 11:34	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1050 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 16:25	PHX 18:15	20%	5%	0.5%	61%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	BWI 06:10 → MDW 07:10WN 995	1h 30m Chicago	MDW 08:40 → PHX 10:20WN 3016	7h 10m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601	56m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → PHX 09:44DL 1070	6h 36m	92%	82%
Delta Details →	BWI 09:39 → DTW 11:07DL 2341	1h 40m Detroit	DTW 12:47 → PHX 13:50DL 813	7h 11m	95%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON