Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4681 at 10:40 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 4681 BWI 10:40 → PIT 11:48 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4164 BWI 22:25 → PIT 23:35 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4681 Southwest	BWI 10:40	PIT 11:48	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1052 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 10:40	PIT 11:45	11%	2%	0.6%	89%
WN 4164 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 22:25	PIT 23:35	20%	5%	0.6%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON