Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 37%, against 25% on a calm day. Safest: WN 4521 at 16:40, 31%.

Safest bet today WN 4521 BWI 16:40 → RIC 17:39 · 31% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2353 BWI 22:55 → RIC 23:55 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 37% on time

Weather 37% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 4521 Southwest	BWI 16:40	RIC 17:39	31%	4%	0.2%	no record
WN 967 Southwest	BWI 22:55	RIC 23:54	39%	7%	0.3%	no record
WN 2353 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 22:55	RIC 23:55	40%	7%	0.3%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON