Today looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 13–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today WN 1142 BWI 10:35 → ROC 11:55 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2287 BWI 22:35 → ROC 23:56 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1142 Southwest	BWI 10:35	ROC 11:55	13%	3%	0.1%	no record
WN 2802 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 11:00	ROC 12:15	14%	3%	0.1%	79%
WN 548 Southwest	BWI 17:25	ROC 18:45	19%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 3789 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 15:55	ROC 17:15	21%	4%	0.5%	77%
WN 2287 Southwest	BWI 22:35	ROC 23:56	22%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON