Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 287 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 287 BWI 06:10 → SAN 08:27 · 22% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1181 BWI 09:30 → SAN 11:45 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 32% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 287 Southwest	BWI 06:10	SAN 08:27	22%	3%	0.3%	no record
WN 1089 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 21:05	SAN 23:25	30%	5%	0.7%	50%
WN 1088 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 15:00	SAN 17:20	33%	6%	0.6%	42%
WN 1059 Southwest	BWI 16:40	SAN 18:58	33%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 2407 Southwest	BWI 09:45	SAN 12:01	36%	9%	0.3%	no record
WN 1181 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 09:30	SAN 11:45	38%	9%	0.3%	65%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BWI 09:39 → DTW 11:07DL 2341	1h 27m Detroit	DTW 12:34 → SAN 14:19DL 761	7h 40m	93%	80%
Southwest Details →	BWI 06:15 → STL 07:30WN 1109	1h 00m St Louis	STL 08:30 → SAN 10:24WN 4403	7h 09m	95%	79%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601	1h 06m Detroit	DTW 08:45 → SAN 10:27DL 492	7h 19m	95%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON