Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:45 pm at Baltimore); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Love Field, leaving 18:20, is the safest bet: 46% chance of reaching San Antonio on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Nonstops today


WN 1153 Southwest	BWI 20:25	SAT 23:15	29%	5%	0.1%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	BWI 16:23 → DEN 18:18UA 2012	2h 21m Denver	DEN 20:39 → SAT 23:55UA 395	8h 32m	94%	68%
Southwest Details →	BWI 15:50 → LAS 17:50WN 1102	3h 05m Las Vegas	LAS 20:55 → SAT 01:40 +1WN 2335	10h 50m	98%	66%
United Details →	BWI 15:03 → IAH 17:19UA 2095	2h 46m Houston	IAH 20:05 → SAT 21:13UA 1542	7h 10m	97%	64%
Southwest Details →	BWI 16:25 → PHX 18:15WN 1050	2h 50m Phoenix	PHX 21:05 → SAT 01:20 +1WN 3328	9h 55m	97%	63%
Southwest Details →	BWI 18:00 → BNA 19:00WN 879	3h 15m Nashville	BNA 22:15 → SAT 00:43 +1WN 713	7h 43m	99%	62%
American Details →	BWI 18:32 → ORD 19:43AA 3762 · flown by Envoy	1h 36m Chicago	ORD 21:19 → SAT 00:10 +1AA 431	6h 38m	94%	59%
Delta Details →	BWI 17:27 → DTW 19:09DL 2480	1h 06m Detroit	DTW 20:15 → SAT 22:22DL 1365	5h 55m	84%	58%
Southwest Details →	BWI 15:00 → SAN 17:20WN 1088	2h 26m San Diego	SAN 19:46 → SAT 00:35 +1WN 957	10h 35m	100%	58%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	BWI 17:32 → ORD 18:55UA 590	1h 03m Chicago	ORD 19:58 → SAT 22:57UA 1394	6h 25m	72%	52%
Southwest Details →	BWI 17:45 → MCO 20:20WN 172	1h 35m Orlando	MCO 21:55 → SAT 23:54WN 2797	7h 09m	75%	37%
American Details →	BWI 19:12 → DFW 21:47AA 1213	1h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:50 → SAT 23:58AA 1599	5h 46m	60%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON