Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 22–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 423 BWI 16:55 → SAV 18:55 · 22% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4375 BWI 20:05 → SAV 22:00 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 423 Southwest	BWI 16:55	SAV 18:55	22%	4%	0.9%	no record
WN 4611 Southwest	BWI 20:35	SAV 22:35	25%	5%	0.9%	no record
WN 1094 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 15:00	SAV 16:50	26%	3%	1.3%	65%
WN 4375 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 20:05	SAV 22:00	28%	5%	0.9%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON