tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 24–31% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 868 BWI 15:45 → SEA 18:30 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time Riskiest AS 786 BWI 07:03 → SEA 09:53 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time
Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
WN 868 Southwest Flight history → BWI 15:45 SEA 18:30 24% 5% 0.6% 50%
AS 379 Alaska Flight history → BWI 18:07 SEA 21:00 25% 7% 0.7% 67%
AS 786 Alaska Flight history → BWI 07:03 SEA 09:53 31% 5% 0.8% 82%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
DeltaDetails → BWI 11:35 → MSP 13:11DL 2357 2h 04m Minneapolis MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877 8h 25m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → BWI 06:15 → ORD 07:30UA 709 1h 15m Chicago ORD 08:45 → SEA 11:38UA 2099 8h 23m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872 1h 11m Minneapolis MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868 7h 39m 96% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON