Today: UA 2192 at 08:03 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–27%.

Safest bet today UA 2192 BWI 08:03 → SFO 11:06 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 504 BWI 18:59 → SFO 21:50 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2192 United Flight history →	BWI 08:03	SFO 11:06	14%	3%	0.2%	94%
WN 4351 Southwest	BWI 11:45	SFO 14:29	21%	4%	0.1%	no record
UA 504 United Flight history →	BWI 18:59	SFO 21:50	27%	8%	0.6%	56%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	BWI 06:15 → ORD 07:30UA 709	1h 25m Chicago	ORD 08:55 → SFO 11:36UA 342	8h 21m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601	51m Detroit	DTW 08:30 → SFO 10:27DL 361	7h 19m	92%	79%
Southwest Details →	BWI 06:15 → STL 07:30WN 1109	1h 00m St Louis	STL 08:30 → SFO 10:49WN 4931	7h 34m	95%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON