tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via Denver, leaving 06:05, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 186 Southwest Flight history → BWI 12:50 SJC 15:25 16% 3% 0.6% 51%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BWI 06:15 → ORD 07:30UA 709 2h 09m Chicago ORD 09:39 → SJC 12:18UA 307 9h 03m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872 2h 11m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → SJC 12:01DL 2383 8h 41m 99% 91%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 06:05 → DEN 07:50WN 4436 1h 40m Denver DEN 09:30 → SJC 11:00WN 2384 7h 55m 99% 91%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 06:10 → MDW 07:10WN 995 2h 55m Chicago MDW 10:05 → SJC 12:30WN 3752 9h 20m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → BWI 07:15 → SLC 09:50DL 1176 1h 50m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254 8h 20m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → BWI 11:52 → ATL 13:41DL 801 3h 18m Atlanta ATL 16:59 → SJC 18:52DL 2136 10h 00m 99% 87%
AlaskaDetails → BWI 16:19 → PDX 18:56AS 1369 2h 34m Portland PDX 21:30 → SJC 23:21AS 678 10h 02m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 2h 12m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809 8h 50m 98% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → BWI 07:00 → ATL 08:52DL 2579 51m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809 7h 30m 72% 62%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 09:35 → DAL 11:45WN 931 50m Dallas DAL 12:35 → SJC 14:05WN 1407 7h 30m 74% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON