Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1176 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 1176 BWI 07:15 → SLC 09:50 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest WN 924 BWI 18:25 → SLC 21:00 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1176 Delta Flight history →	BWI 07:15	SLC 09:50	10%	3%	0.6%	81%
WN 3889 Southwest	BWI 11:45	SLC 14:29	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 924 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 18:25	SLC 21:00	22%	6%	0.6%	50%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BWI 11:35 → MSP 13:11DL 2357	1h 14m Minneapolis	MSP 14:25 → SLC 16:16DL 2658	6h 41m	96%	86%
Southwest Details →	BWI 06:05 → DEN 07:50WN 4436	46m Denver	DEN 08:36 → SLC 10:06WN 3502	6h 01m	90%	82%
Delta Details →	BWI 09:39 → DTW 11:07DL 2341	1h 13m Detroit	DTW 12:20 → SLC 14:11DL 935	6h 32m	92%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON