Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 296 Southwest	BWI 11:45	SMF 14:33	15%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 4476 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 12:25	SMF 15:00	22%	5%	0.5%	68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON