Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Boston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day


B6 256 JetBlue Flight history →	BZN 12:37	BOS 19:06	30%	13%	1.2%	68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boston is 2 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678	54m Minneapolis	MSP 10:05 → BOS 13:51DL 2655	5h 51m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491	3h 16m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:50 → BOS 16:36DL 657	9h 21m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	BZN 13:36 → MSP 16:56DL 2946	3h 13m Minneapolis	MSP 20:09 → BOS 23:55DL 2614	8h 19m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	BZN 11:29 → MSP 14:44DL 1226	3h 26m Minneapolis	MSP 18:10 → BOS 22:01DL 1502	8h 32m	100%	81%
United Details →	BZN 08:00 → ORD 11:57UA 1693	2h 12m Chicago	ORD 14:09 → BOS 17:51UA 1928	7h 51m	99%	79%
American Details →	BZN 13:20 → ORD 17:29AA 1501	3h 00m Chicago	ORD 20:29 → BOS 00:05 +1AA 2682	8h 45m	97%	79%
Southwest Details →	BZN 07:35 → MDW 11:25WN 4738	1h 20m Chicago	MDW 12:45 → BOS 16:05WN 4649	6h 30m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	BZN 14:21 → ATL 20:14DL 406	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → BOS 01:20 +1DL 865	8h 59m	96%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	BZN 16:24 → ORD 20:40UA 1744	1h 01m Chicago	ORD 21:41 → BOS 01:14 +1UA 1779	6h 50m	75%	63%
American Details →	BZN 13:52 → DFW 17:56AA 952	1h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:59 → BOS 23:32AA 1366	7h 40m	72%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON