tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 13:36, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Charlotte on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 2 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BZN 13:36 → MSP 16:55DL 2946 3h 19m Minneapolis MSP 20:14 → CLT 23:44DL 2929 8h 08m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678 1h 19m Minneapolis MSP 10:30 → CLT 13:57DL 2819 5h 57m 98% 90%
SouthwestDetails → BZN 07:35 → MDW 11:25WN 4738 1h 35m Chicago MDW 13:00 → CLT 16:00WN 4343 6h 25m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → BZN 14:21 → ATL 20:14DL 406 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 22:41 → CLT 23:58DL 3177 7h 37m 97% 82%
AmericanDetails → BZN 13:18 → ORD 17:27AA 1501 3h 27m Chicago ORD 20:54 → CLT 23:59AA 2976 8h 41m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362 1h 33m Denver DEN 09:57 → CLT 15:23UA 2231 6h 53m 96% 80%
UnitedDetails → BZN 08:00 → ORD 11:57UA 1693 2h 33m Chicago ORD 14:30 → CLT 17:59UA 5757 · flown by SkyWest 7h 59m 100% 77%
UnitedDetails → BZN 14:26 → DEN 16:20UA 2258 1h 25m Denver DEN 17:45 → CLT 23:08UA 616 6h 42m 94% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BZN 16:14 → DFW 20:24AA 1647 1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:25 → CLT 00:59 +1AA 2409 6h 45m 72% 49%
AmericanDetails → BZN 13:50 → DFW 17:54AA 952 1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:54 → CLT 22:38AA 1229 6h 48m 70% 48%
UnitedDetails → BZN 11:38 → EWR 18:00UA 348 48m Newark EWR 18:48 → CLT 21:02UA 2104 7h 24m 70% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON