Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1130 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 1130 BZN 06:10 → DEN 07:45 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest WN 1133 BZN 16:30 → DEN 18:20 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1130 Southwest Flight history →	BZN 06:10	DEN 07:45	3%	1%	0.5%	86%
UA 1362 United Flight history →	BZN 06:30	DEN 08:24	4%	2%	0.5%	97%
WN 3235 Southwest	BZN 07:05	DEN 08:46	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 1824 United Flight history →	BZN 10:33	DEN 12:25	7%	2%	0.5%	91%
OO 4654 SkyWest	BZN 10:43	DEN 12:53	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2258 United Flight history →	BZN 14:26	DEN 16:20	9%	3%	0.5%	82%
WN 1131 Southwest Flight history →	BZN 11:15	DEN 12:55	11%	2%	0.5%	73%
UA 1322 United Flight history →	BZN 16:29	DEN 18:23	14%	4%	0.5%	58%
UA 5736 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BZN 17:51	DEN 19:58	15%	4%	0.7%	65%
WN 1132 Southwest Flight history →	BZN 14:50	DEN 16:35	16%	3%	0.5%	33%
WN 1133 Southwest Flight history →	BZN 16:30	DEN 18:20	22%	4%	0.5%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON