Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1693 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 1693 BZN 06:45 → DFW 10:47 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 1647 BZN 16:14 → DFW 20:24 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1693 American Flight history →	BZN 06:45	DFW 10:47	8%	3%	2.1%	85%
AA 1653 American Flight history →	BZN 11:39	DFW 15:45	19%	6%	1.8%	77%
AA 952 American Flight history →	BZN 13:50	DFW 17:54	30%	8%	1.8%	84%worse than usual
AA 1647 American Flight history →	BZN 16:14	DFW 20:24	30%	8%	1.8%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON